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The Money Issue - What's going on, conference, etc.

  • There's a LOT of information and misinformation going on. Here's a SIMPLIFIED dumbed down way to basically explain what's going on -

    1. Most conferences lock up what's called your "Tier 1 and Tier 2" media rights. Your Teir 3 rights are freely negotiable and controlled by the schools use it to make extra money (whatever deal the school makes, they get to keep all the revenue).

    A "new" tactic to "lock down" schools to their conferences is basically signing away these "Tier1 and Tier2" rights to the conference for the length of the current media contract with whatever media giant the conference has. Example, if Oklahoma leaves to the Big East tomorrow, the Big12 keeps all of their media money for the next 10 years (or however long the new Big12 contract is)... and Oklahoma and the Big East get NOTHING.

    UF gets like 5 million a year or more extra for their Tier 3 rights... Texas has the Longhorn Network paying them 20 mil.. the Big10 basically pools theirs into a TV station of their own combined, etc etc.

    2. The Playoffs

    This is a MONSTER issue right now, and it's shocking nobody's talking about it. The new playoffs are going to generate "sick money" for College Football.

    Let's look at the BCS as it is today - If your team goes to a BCS game (FSU), then both the school itself (FSU) and the whole conference benefits. FSU gets the most, because they went, but the conference gets a blowback windfall for a member going.

    Now, let's move forward to the playoffs.... this money is going to be SICK.

    Well, a big concern is simple.. the 4 teams in the playoffs and their respective conferences are likely to get a massive bulk of the money, projected at 75% or more (it's all being negotiated).

    Think about that "arms race" for a minute. If the SEC puts at least a team in yearly, which is likely, they'll get a windfall every year like clockwork. But how often is an ACC team in that final four at end of season? Once in the last 10 years.

    Now you know why this is a BIG FREAKING DEAL right now.

    This post was edited by satexas on 5/3/2012 at 5:52 AM

    satexas

  • Sooooo... Is FSU signed, sealed and delivered to the Big 12 this summer?

    "England expects that every man will do his duty." - Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson, Royal Navy

    SwoNole9

  • How close is this to happening? We need to leave the acc asap!

    gobucs84

  • If this new "playoff" system is pretty much a done deal, then I feel we need to make the move to the big 12. Getting to that top 4 ranking will be much harder for an undefeated FSU team, unlike an undefeated texas or OU team. The competition is simply better. Simple.

    I'm not really buying the travel argument; flying to texas, oklahoma, colorado really isnt MORE taxing than flying to MD, VA or boston.

    I'm all for the move.

    seminolelive84

  • From a business aspect the opportunity cost/revenue is a no brainer...

    "England expects that every man will do his duty." - Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson, Royal Navy

    SwoNole9

  • To answer all the responses at once:

    1. Travel to Big12 wouldn't be much more, here's why. Travel to BC/Pitt/Syracuse versus Big12 is comperable. Secondly, if you take 3 teams with you, and West Virginia would already be "here"... then you have a "Big 12 East" which you would play all the teams....so you'd only be playing "Texas teams" 3-4 games a year max. Then take that number and half-it.. because of home-home situations.

    2. Yes, this new playoff system is a done deal. The exact model, money distribution, etc, is being debated.

    3. An undefeated FSU team would never miss the top 4... and the playoffs. That would never happen, the SOS (strength of schedule) ranking alone would guarantee entry. There would literally have to be 5 undefeated teams with FSU somehow getting the weakest schedule and lowest votes. Won't happen.

    satexas

  • satexas said...

    Well, a big concern is simple.. the 4 teams in the playoffs and their respective conferences are likely to get a massive bulk of the money, projected at 75% or more (it's all being negotiated).

    Think about that "arms race" for a minute. If the SEC puts at least a team in yearly, which is likely, they'll get a windfall every year like clockwork. But how often is an ACC team in that final four at end of season? Once in the last 10 years.

    Now you know why this is a BIG FREAKING DEAL right now.

    Nice post, Thanks!!!
    But you are missing a point here. You have what is called recency bias. That is you assume what has happened most recently is what is always going to happen. The facts are the SEC has had a long run of late. The reality is that the SEC is most likely at the end of their run. Perhaps they get the benefit of the doubt for a couple of years from the pollsters, but some losses in big games will turn the tide for them kinda like what happened to the Big 10.
    The other issue is that with 4 teams, the odds go down of being NC. It becomes less likely that the BEST team wins because you increase the chance of a bad break or bad game keeping you from that NC kinda like the Basketball tournament where you have consensus #1 teams going down to lesser opponents all the time. Now it won't be as bad as March Madness because there is only two games played [or three if there is still a conference championship involved] but you get the idea, the more one and out games you play the less the odds of winning.

    My theory is this is cyclical and each conference will have a run. If this is the case the SECs run came at the wrong time before the big money came about!

    signature image signature image signature image

    fsufool

  • fsufool said...

    Nice post, Thanks!!! But you are missing a point here. You have what is called recency bias. That is you assume what has happened most recently is what is always going to happen. The facts are the SEC has had a long run of late. The reality is that the SEC is most likely at the end of their run.

    Ok, I get your point, and it's with spectic respects to what I said about the ACC - They're in that playoffs once int he last 10 years.

    Yes, the SEC is on a tear like FSU was in the 90's. Yes things in CFB rotate, parity in basic form, exists.

    True, true and true.

    Now remember.. this "new playoff money" is basically the top 4 teams. You'd agree yes? Sure the final 2 playing for the title will get more.. but let's just focus on the basics here... top 4 for simplification.

    Do you deny that the SEC is pretty much going to always have a team in the top 4 at the end of the year.. and that means almost a yearly paycheck supplement. Do you dispute this? If not every year, then how about 8/10 at least?

    The Big12, the way it is now, will like be in that top 4 about 50% or more of the time.

    Where do you project the ACC, as they stand now, in that playoffs?

    Do you not see that, as things stand now, it's going to be really hard for the "ACC to keep pace" on getting a team in that playoffs yearly, to keep up with all the other conferences getting that big payday?

    Do you really thing FSU is going to have another run like we did in the 90's? Do you believe that? As much as I love FSU, the chance of that happening again before both of us die is about 5% on the high-side.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by satexas on 5/3/2012 at 4:26 PM

    satexas

  • Well yea that was the point of post. The SEC has been real good [and lucky like when a 2 loss Florida won the NC]. But everything turns. So the SEC dominance will too. Maybe history will reverse itself and the SEC will be a great football conference forever, but I doubt it.

    Personally, I think the Big 10 is the most likely candidate to dominate the next era.
    And either the ACC will field a couple more great teams each year or FSU will dominate it like they did in the 90s. Either way, I think the ACC will send teams consistently to the 4 team playoff.
    It wouldn't surprise me to see that more years than not the final 4 will consist of a team from 4 of the SEC,Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and the ACC with the left out conference rotating year to year.
    But that is just the statistician in me coming out :-)

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    fsufool

  • The SEC isn't going anywhere. They have every tangible advantage a conference could want. Huge TV deals giving them insane amounts of money. A footprint that covers where most of the football talent in this country is located. Lets face it, other than California, the best talent comes from the SEC footprint. Add in fans, willingness to spend money on football, exposure, etc., and while I agree there are trends, but I don't see the SEC falling out of #1 any time soon.

    B10 may make a lot of money, but what they don't have is the talent base. The geographical location of the teams within the Big Ten prevents it from ever getting close to the SEC in terms of the number of talented teams. They may have an Ohio State and a Michigan, but they will never have Bama, Arkansas, LSU, UGA, UF, etc. that are all playing good simultaneously.

    The B12 has the talent base to work with, but it is the money where they fall behind the SEC. To me, the conference that I can see making a huge jump is the P12. Lots of money, which is apparent by the coaches entering this conference (Mike Leach, Jim Mora Jr., Rich Rodriguez).

    Regardless, I think the SEC getting 1 team in that top 4 every single season is obvious. Lets face, the other 3 teams will always be, B10, B12, P12, ACC, SEC #2, or a miracle team from Big East, MWC, or ND. I think the ACC has the potential to have a top 4 team up to 50% of the time. While recent history may not indicate that, when we look at the teams in this conference I think almost everyone can agree that FSU and Miami have had their worst decade in a long time. VaTech has been hovering around the top 4-7 for 15 years now. Clemson hasn't finished in the top 4, but they have been ranked in the top 4 during the regular season in November multiple times (sure they screw it up, but it shows the potential is there).

    Ultimately, the question is, do we leave or do we stay in the ACC. I think if the status quo in the ACC holds, we need to leave. I don't really want to, because while most people don't care, I like being in a conference that values academics, unlike the B12 which is even worse than the SEC in academics. I like being in a conference where we at least have something in common with the teams we play every year. And lastly, the ACC is better than the B12 in every other sport other than football. That being said, I still think we should leave, because at the end of the day, if we don't have the money to keep our coaches in all sports, then we can't let this conference hold us back.

    There is only 1 way I think we should stay in the ACC and that is if Notre Dame enters. If ND enters it gives us a huge boost in money without having to sacrifice all of the advantages the ACC does have. I think our conference still is very winnable, but difficult enough where we get credit for winning it.

    signature image

    "Some people think football is a matter of life and death, I assure you, it is much more serious than that."

    crozea55

  • BTW, thinking out loud, but a B12 East-West looks like what exactly? I am seeing a ton of West teams and essentially 4 or 5 East teams.

    East
    FSU
    Clemson
    WVU
    Miami
    UL

    West
    Baylor
    Texas
    TCU
    TxTech
    OU
    Ok State
    KU
    KSU
    ISU

    What 2 West teams move over? I am guessing the Kansas schools so they can maintain all the rivalries within the states of Oklahoma and Texas.

    signature image

    "Some people think football is a matter of life and death, I assure you, it is much more serious than that."

    crozea55

  • crozea55 said...

    The SEC isn't going anywhere. They have every tangible advantage a conference could want. Huge TV deals giving them insane amounts of money. A footprint that covers where most of the football talent in this country is located. Lets face it, other than California, the best talent comes from the SEC footprint. Add in fans, willingness to spend money on football, exposure, etc., and while I agree there are trends, but I don't see the SEC falling out of #1 any time soon.

    B10 may make a lot of money, but what they don't have is the talent base. The geographical location of the teams within the Big Ten prevents it from ever getting close to the SEC in terms of the number of talented teams. They may have an Ohio State and a Michigan, but they will never have Bama, Arkansas, LSU, UGA, UF, etc. that are all playing good simultaneously.

    The B12 has the talent base to work with, but it is the money where they fall behind the SEC. To me, the conference that I can see making a huge jump is the P12. Lots of money, which is apparent by the coaches entering this conference (Mike Leach, Jim Mora Jr., Rich Rodriguez).

    Regardless, I think the SEC getting 1 team in that top 4 every single season is obvious. Lets face, the other 3 teams will always be, B10, B12, P12, ACC, SEC #2, or a miracle team from Big East, MWC, or ND. I think the ACC has the potential to have a top 4 team up to 50% of the time. While recent history may not indicate that, when we look at the teams in this conference I think almost everyone can agree that FSU and Miami have had their worst decade in a long time. VaTech has been hovering around the top 4-7 for 15 years now. Clemson hasn't finished in the top 4, but they have been ranked in the top 4 during the regular season in November multiple times (sure they screw it up, but it shows the potential is there).

    Ultimately, the question is, do we leave or do we stay in the ACC. I think if the status quo in the ACC holds, we need to leave. I don't really want to, because while most people don't care, I like being in a conference that values academics, unlike the B12 which is even worse than the SEC in academics. I like being in a conference where we at least have something in common with the teams we play every year. And lastly, the ACC is better than the B12 in every other sport other than football. That being said, I still think we should leave, because at the end of the day, if we don't have the money to keep our coaches in all sports, then we can't let this conference hold us back.

    There is only 1 way I think we should stay in the ACC and that is if Notre Dame enters. If ND enters it gives us a huge boost in money without having to sacrifice all of the advantages the ACC does have. I think our conference still is very winnable, but difficult enough where we get credit for winning it.

    Well said Crozea55....

    I'd agree with every word except that I expect Virginia Tech to fall back to being Virginia Tech after Coach Beamer is gone. I think the run they've had the last 10 years is their "peak" of sorts.

    satexas

  • If you tear this down to the meat of the issue it is real simple. Money=Wins. It is a direct correlation. The conferences with the most money increase their winning % immensely. We need to go where the money is. Fact is if we were in the SEC right now or and expanded Big IX we would not be having a budget shortfall. The SEC, Pac, and Big IX will be able to keep the ACC, Big Least, and other conferences out with their $$$$.

    Here is a simple scenario of how this works. We go out and compete for a MNC this year. You honestly believe one of the teams from the SEC or Pac would not come and offer Jimbo an insane amount of money to lure him away. We will not be able to match it because our Athletic Dept is flat out poor. Every time a good coach starts to bring a team to prominence in the weaker conferences then a University from one of the cash rich conferences will just steal them away to beat that team down. WIthout ND the ACC is a dead conference. FSU does not have the financial ability to carry the ACC on its own. We flat out dont have the money. We dont even have our scholarships endowed. If FSU goes to a conference that puts us on a level to compete with the UF's and Ohio States of the world then we would consistently be in the 4 team playoff. Without that conference backing then the Big Boys will make it a mission to hold us down.

    Navarre Nole

  • crozea55 said...

    The SEC isn't going anywhere. They have every tangible advantage a conference could want. Huge TV deals giving them insane amounts of money. A footprint that covers where most of the football talent in this country is located. Lets face it, other than California, the best talent comes from the SEC footprint. Add in fans, willingness to spend money on football, exposure, etc., and while I agree there are trends, but I don't see the SEC falling out of #1 any time soon.

    England will never fall. They have every tangible advantage a country could want. Huge trade routes, that give them insane amounts of money, a huge advanced Navy, and a established government in every area of the world........just saying.......read your history everything cycles out even those with extreme advantages.

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    fsufool

  • fsufool said...

    England will never fall. They have every tangible advantage a country could want. Huge trade routes, that give them insane amounts of money, a huge advanced Navy, and a established government in every area of the world........just saying.......read your history everything cycles out even those with extreme advantages.

    Though there is certainly validity to your point.....England's power was over a few hundred years.....just sayingbiggrin

    This post was edited by thebear612 on 5/3/2012 at 5:47 PM

    thebear612