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FSU Track has legit shot at Championship....going on now.

  • We were actually projected by one service to finish first..... I would give us a 25-35% chance of winning coming in...However, Gonzo our Cath guy didnt have a great day and he is a big point getter for us....his best events are tomorrow but he has given up a bunch of ground....Our 800 guy fell down the stretch...... not a horrible day for us so far but could be better......gates and Tam are major competition....we finished 2nd to Tam last year....it is a three day event that started today...

    http://www.flashresults.com/2012_Meets/outdoor/06-06-NCAADI/Day1.htm

    you can follow along above but you have to have an idea of where we are competing....main points should come from Cath, 100,200, 4x100,

    thebear612

  • Hopefully bring the outdoor title back to tally.

    signature image signature image signature image

    duvalnole

  • thebear612 said...

    We were actually projected by one service to finish first..... I would give us a 25-35% chance of winning coming in...However, Gonzo our Cath guy didnt have a great day and he is a big point getter for us....his best events are tomorrow but he has given up a bunch of ground....Our 800 guy fell down the stretch...... not a horrible day for us so far but could be better......gates and Tam are major competition....we finished 2nd to Tam last year....it is a three day event that started today...

    http://www.flashresults.com/2012_Meets/outdoor/06-06-NCAADI/Day1.htm

    you can follow along above but you have to have an idea of where we are competing....main points should come from Cath, 100,200, 4x100,

    Darrin Gibson falling in the 800 meter really didn't hurt. He wasn't expected to score any points by the site the predicted FSU to win:

    http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/special-articles/1045

    GANoles93

  • Looks like Texas A&M had a pretty bad day.

    Beckles failed to qualify in the 400m and Hardy failing to qualify in the 100m was huge.

    GANoles93

  • Good for us. UF, TAMU and FSU are probably the only 3 realistic contendors. Both TAMU and UF have already had some things happen before the championship happened that was beneficial for us. More issues gives us even more buffer room.

    We really need to win it this year and use it to boost recruiting, which hasn't been terrible (obvious considering or string of 2nd place finishes), but we have been missing on that 1 or 2 elite guys that would put us on top.

    fsukum ●

  • fsukum said...

    Good for us. UF, TAMU and FSU are probably the only 3 realistic contendors. Both TAMU and UF have already had some things happen before the championship happened that was beneficial for us. More issues gives us even more buffer room.

    We really need to win it this year and use it to boost recruiting, which hasn't been terrible (obvious considering or string of 2nd place finishes), but we have been missing on that 1 or 2 elite guys that would put us on top.

    Clw4 (Texas A&M site) does a pretty good job following track (link below)

    His projections based on today's results:

    1. FSU 52
    2. UF 47
    3. Texas A&M 43

    "Hardy doesn't make 100m final. Will now need FSU and UF to screw up big time for A&M to have a chance at the title."

    http://texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?topic_id=2096562&page=2&forum_id=10

    GANoles93

  • Awesome, thanks. I hope everything goes as planned for us. No injuries, false starts, anything. We need this title!

    fsukum ●

  • great find GA...

    Mens Predicted Scores
    1. FSU 51
    2. UF 47
    3. A&M 43

    100 - FSU(18)
    200 - FSU(12), A&M(10), UF(Q)
    400 - UF(10), A&M(4)
    Steeple - A&M(4)
    110h - A&M(4), UF(Q)
    4x100 - FSU(8), A&M(6)
    4x400 - UF(10), A&M(8), FSU(Q)
    HJ - UF(4)
    PV - FSU(Q)
    TJ - UF(10), FSU(3)
    Shot - FSU(Q)
    Hammer - UF(5)
    Jav - UF(8), A&M(6)
    Dec - FSU(10)

    Above are his latest numbers... at quick glance I think these numbers are based on the best times of the year for each and assumes all the kids run the same at the NCAA's....probably the best way to do it but far from perfect. .we didnt score a point in the 10000...finished 15 which isnt a surprise.....FSU would need to finish 1-2 in the 100....but the kid from AU absolutely scorched the run and his time is faster than either of our guys....both our kids would have to run career best to beat him....so take us down from 18 to 15.....Gonzo did not have a good day today and unless he tears it up tomorrow.....may be looking closer to 4-5 points..... The above would drop us 8 points or so...... really need uf to falter in the TJ and Javelin. I do think we could win the 4x100..... Keep an eye on the 4x400...this event has cost us 2 National Championships by 1 point.....it is usually the last race of the Championship.

    This post was edited by thebear612 on 6/6/2012 at 11:47 PM

    thebear612

  • thebear612 said...

    great find GA...

    Mens Predicted Scores 1. FSU 51 2. UF 47 3. A&M 43

    100 - FSU(18) 200 - FSU(12), A&M(10), UF(Q) 400 - UF(10), A&M(4) Steeple - A&M(4) 110h - A&M(4), UF(Q) 4x100 - FSU(8), A&M(6) 4x400 - UF(10), A&M(8), FSU(Q) HJ - UF(4) PV - FSU(Q) TJ - UF(10), FSU(3) Shot - FSU(Q) Hammer - UF(5) Jav - UF(8), A&M(6) Dec - FSU(10)

    Above are his latest numbers... at quick glance I think these numbers are based on the best times of the year for each and assumes all the kids run the same at the NCAA's....probably the best way to do it but far from perfect. .we didnt score a point in the 10000...finished 15 which isnt a surprise.....FSU would need to finish 1-2 in the 100....but the kid from AU absolutely scorched the run and his time is faster than either of our guys....both our kids would have to run career best to beat him....so take us down from 18 to 15.....Gonzo did not have a good day today and unless he tears it up tomorrow.....may be looking closer to 4-5 points..... The above would drop us 8 points or so...... really need uf to falter in the TJ and Javelin. I do think we could win the 4x100..... Keep an eye on the 4x400...this event has cost us 2 National Championships by 1 point.....it is usually the last race of the Championship.

    While I generally agree with your premise that we will have to be somewhat fortunate to win; I think your analysis is a byproduct of knowing way more about FSU than TAMU and UF. Of the expected point getters you listed, I really doubt that UF and TAMU are going to get all their expected points either. That's about the one thing I've definitively learned from following track for the last 4 years.

    otown nole29245

  • Based in what i know about track there are usually guys that run really good numbers in prelims that just aren't characteristic of them. The twin guys that had the races better than us in the 100 are probably not going to match those races in the finals....its easy to run well when u know ur going to win. And the 4*1 is the scares event to count on because faster teams usually have quick handoffs making it easy to drop the baton. We will not beat auburn but 2nd place is possible. The 200 is easily mitch's race. We have to have a lead ten points or better before the 4*4 because either tamu or florida will win that by a good margin. The decath is going to be hard to make up but also Florida who i think is the team with the best chance of beating us has the jumps to worry about...this is another event that its hard to depend on even when ur the best because a good jump can easily be messed up by a fall and missing the board.... I also see Williams getting more points than he is seeded in the 200... I see it being a two way race between us and uf with us leading at the end and uf having a chance to take the win in the 4*4... Wish i was still out there lol

    signature image signature image signature image

    Walking up these hills you have no choice but to be fast!

    FSUTrackLoveFSU

  • No arguments from me on what you said (otown)...I was just analysing FSU as I know our track team way better....I would also add that I think we end up with more points in the 200 then projected.... also UF is projected to win 3 events.... if they finish 2nd in those events which is very feasible, it would not drop them 3 points....but 6 as the drop from 1st to 2nd is 10 to 8 points.....

    I sure as (beep) hope we dont lose another title to the 4x4 and was a mentioned above, we need an 11 point lead going in....

    Im just happy to see people talking about FSU sports other than football on here.

    This post was edited by thebear612 on 6/7/2012 at 12:59 PM

    thebear612

  • I love track & field so I will be watching all day saturday (last day is on ESPNU)

    This post was edited by otown nole29245 on 6/7/2012 at 1:06 PM

    otown nole29245

  • noles

    GO NOLES! / SCALP EM!

    NOLE FAN1 ●

  • Sounds like things are going well today, no?

    fsukum ●

  • Gonzo is up to 6th and is now doing the PV....this is an event he can CRUSH..... needs to kill it here....personal best would be nice..... The next hour will give us a good idea of where he will finish....3 more events left including PV

    thebear612

  • what is the word?

    fsukum ●

  • Dont want to jinx anything...but hypothetically if someone you may be rooting for can match their 5.3m ACC Championship number in the PV they would make up nice ground as the top 5 in overall are struggling......

    thebear612

  • Gonzo just went 5.3 first attempt..... No one else of relevance is still competing..... see if he can hit 5.35 next.....

    thebear612

  • fsukum ●

  • Gonzo misses at 5.4 haven't seen points posted yet but I THINK he will now take the overall lead. However, I think this will be hard to keep....top 3 is now in site overall. 2 events to go...he is solid not great at them.

    thebear612

  • UF javelin thrower, Stipe Zunic, is currently 7th.

    He was projected to finish 2nd. Only two throws remaining.

    GANoles93

  • Keep 'em coming!

    fsukum ●

  • Tam picked up a few points in the Jav....their guy placed 2nd which is where I think the uf guy was slotted coming in, he finished 7th....so uf drops a few and Tam picked up a few.

    thebear612

  • They gained a net 2 points from predicted. They lost a point when one of their guys didn't place 8th as predicted, but gained 3 points by placing 2nd instead of 4th. Even at that, they were still 8 points behind FSU in the prediction.

    fsukum ●

  • thebear612 said...

    Tam picked up a few points in the Jav....their guy placed 2nd which is where I think the uf guy was slotted coming in, he finished 7th....so uf drops a few and Tam picked up a few.

    Yeah, TAM finishing 2nd was a little surprising.

    Predicted finish (TAM site) after javelin:

    *FSU 51
    TAM 45
    UF 41

    * based on Gonzo finishing 1st. If he finishes 3rd., It will probably be revised to:

    FSU 47
    TAM 45
    UF 41

    This will go down to the wire like the last few years.

    GANoles93

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