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Class Predictions

  • Mass Nole said...

    I agree...typically you want between 13 and 15 scholarship OLineman on the roster. Right now I believe we have 12 and most if are under class men. We needed to sign 3 at the most and ideally 2 of those being JUCO to provide quality depth. Not quite as dire as most would like to suggest.

    Jmo but you absolutely NEED more than 13 OL on the roster. More like 15-17. We had 14 on the roster in 2011. The problem was that 7 of the 14 were true freshmen. One was a redshirt freshman. And another was a first year transfer. Only 5 guys had experience on the OL and most of them wound up injured this year.

    tricknole

  • I agree you need 15 to be 3 deep at every position. What I meant was that typically teams carry between 13 and 15 scholarship OLineman.

    Mass Nole ●

  • MyNameIsMyName said...

    I agree with this. But I think we need to make OL a priority in every class (1 or 2 a class) from now on to avoid the feast/famine cycle we seem to be on.

    You need to take 3-4 each class. That'd give you 20 over a 5-year period. That's more than you need at any one time but considering the amount of attrition on the OL, maybe only 15 of them play out their eligibility at FSU.

    tricknole

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    TNOLE27

  • Jackson, Hart, Matius and Barron all played as true freshman, meaning that if we sign 4 OL and redshirt them behind them we'd have that 2 year separation we want. We should have 3 or 4 OL this class.

    Noleville

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    fsukum

  • Might as well point out that with the confidence probabilities given, of the 6 commits Josh predicts will go to FSU (Darby, Goldman, MEJ, Watson, Northrup, Winston), his confidence factors suggest he only predicts 4.4 of them will come here, which you'd round down to 4. You get this by simply adding up the probabilities.

    In other words, he's saying each one has a better than 50% chance to come here, but he's actually predicting we'll get 4 of those 6. If we lose two of those, people will not be happy.

    On the other hand, he gives us a substantial probability of landing some other players, so if you throw in Agholor, Howard and all the others mentioned, he's actually predicting we'll add 6-7 more players, which is about right.

    My questions: what probability does he give to the mystery recruit?

    What probability does he give that we add a Trickett special?

    What probability does he give that we add TWO trickett specials?

    Josh?

    googolplex ●

  • googolplex said...

    Might as well point out that with the confidence probabilities given, of the 6 commits Josh predicts will go to FSU (Darby, Goldman, MEJ, Watson, Northrup, Winston), his confidence factors suggest he only predicts 4.4 of them will come here, which you'd round down to 4. You get this by simply adding up the probabilities.

    In other words, he's saying each one has a better than 50% chance to come here, but he's actually predicting we'll get 4 of those 6. If we lose two of those, people will not be happy.

    That's not a very accurate assessment.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by fsukum on 1/13/2012 at 1:45 PM

    fsukum

  • googolplex said...

    In other words, he's saying each one has a better than 50% chance to come here, but he's actually predicting we'll get 4 of those 6. If we lose two of those, people will not be happy.

    Huh?

    FSULaura

  • Where would that put our class ranking if we close with those projections ? If we are at 6 ish now and most classes ahead are near full what do you see final class ranking at? Thanks

    Dunole

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    signature image signature image

    swizz

  • FSULaura said...

    Huh?

    Just saying that if I predict a 51% chance we'll land each of 100 prospects, I'm predicting we'll land 51 prospects, not that we'll land 100 prospects. You add up the probabilities.

    This is a reply to fsukum too.

    I don't take the probabilities seriously, of course, just having fun with math. It's actually remarkable that Josh's probabilities add up to the correct number of recruits to get us to that 21-22 mark.

    googolplex ●

  • Thanks for responding. That's just not how I understood Josh's %, and now he has explained them.

    FSULaura

  • A few years ago I remember that TOS had about 5 players at 50% the day before signing day, we wiffed on all five. 50% goes the other way as well, just like a coin flip. Now if the mods are saying 75% then I start to think we might get this kid, over 90% and it's expected.

    Noleville

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    For the latest recruiting scoop follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/joshnewberg247

    Josh Newberg

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    googolplex ●

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    For the latest recruiting scoop follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/joshnewberg247

    Josh Newberg

  • BigErn said...

    If your confidence level in Edwards is even close to how our coaches feel, I hope we really push for Leonard Williams.

    This.

    55Nole

  • tkeyphi said...

    Interesting that you're more confident in Darby and Goldman than MEJ who is currently committed. I thought MEJ was heavily recruiting for FSU at he UA game. What are you hearing that only has you 55% confident? Trust your opinion just wondering what you're hearing from the Texas side.

    Not here to rain on anyones parade but.I have a friend who knows Malcolm Brown a Texas commit.He hung out with Mario every day at practice and he told my friend that Mario was doing everything but talking up the noles.I think its a Texas LSU race from here on out.

    longhorn66

  • longhorn66 said...

    Not here to rain on anyones parade but.I have a friend who knows Malcolm Brown a Texas commit.He hung out with Mario every day at practice and he told my friend that Mario was doing everything but talking up the noles.I think its a Texas LSU race from here on out.

    Not what we're hearing my man. It's premium info so I'll lt you read between the lines.

    Mass Nole ●

  • Malcom and Mario became good buddys and text one another almost daily so i dont know what your hearing but my info is coming straight from the horses mouth.

    longhorn66

  • longhorn66 said...

    Malcom and Mario became good buddys and text one another almost daily so i dont know what your hearing but my info is coming straight from the horses mouth.

    Mario isn't going to UT or LSU.

    signature image

    BushidoNole ●

  • sorry double post

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by DieHardScNole on 1/15/2012 at 1:52 PM

    DieHardScNole

  • longhorn66 said...

    Malcom and Mario became good buddys and text one another almost daily so i dont know what your hearing but my info is coming straight from the horses mouth.

    The horses mouth being another texas commit? Wouldnt the horses mouth be Mario's Mouth?.......and if you wanna use 3rd parties as the horses mouth, MEJ told multiple people he intends to sign with fsu and also told the coaches that, hes a FSU legacy so i doubt he is gunna lie to them about it..... Just saying, go try and stir up stuff else where please we have trust in our info from josh n corey...Thank you adios

    DieHardScNole

  • longhorn66 said...

    Malcom and Mario became good buddys and text one another almost daily so i dont know what your hearing but my info is coming straight from the horses mouth.

    So your good friends with Mario? lol

    This post was edited by CO Nole on 1/15/2012 at 2:09 PM

    CO Nole

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