Unconquered

June/July announcement of FSU/Clemson joining and leaving the ACC.

This was posted on another board (not a 247/rivals/scout/etc type of team forum, either)

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I thought that you FSU fans might be interested in this information:

Clemson and FSU to The Big XII is very, very close to reality. This is what I know (not speculation). This information is from an Athletic Director from a current Big XII school.

During the recent BCS meetings, a 4 team playoff format was discussed. The proposed format included the following (all things are still under discussion and subject to change):

1. No conferences will have AQ status
2. Multiple teams from 1 conference can qualify for playoffs
3. An RPI formula (similar to college basketball) was used to determine qualifiers
4. Venues included Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and possibly GA Dome - No Orange Bowl

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team. The Big East had more qualifiers over this time span. This point was hammered and driven home to Clemson and FSU by Big XII officials. - If you want to compete and play for a national championship under the playoff format that is coming, you will have to leave the ACC.

This left Swofford scrambling to find a way to keep the ACC viable and intact as a major player in football. However, there was only one conclusion that seemed to achieve that result - talk Notre Dame into joining the conference. At the moment, Notre Dame would like to remain independent, so it will not be an easy task. But again, this is the only team that can add the relevant interest (viewers and dollars) to keep the ACC alive as a football conference.

With the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the ACC has been trying to renegotiate it's TV deal with ESPN. Those talks have now come to a halt, and is looking like it may end up going in front of an arbitrator. Has ESPN caught wind of the possible defections of the ACC most profitable football members?

So what does all this mean? I was told the following (again, by an AD that was at the meetings and involved in the discussions): There is a very high percentage chance that both Clemson and FSU leave the ACC to join the Big XII. The money per team will be almost double what the ACC is able to offer - and that does not include independent 3rd tier deals that Clemson and FSU will work out on their own. There is also a 3rd ACC school involved in the mix to join the Big XII. However, that school is being chosen from a couple of different possibilities. If those defections do indeed occur, look for two ACC school to leave and join the SEC. The SEC has their eye on 2 in particular. Louisville will most likely be the 14th team added to the Big XII. This could also force Notre Dame to join a conference. There is a 90% chance they would join the B1G. The B1G would actually be quite happy sitting at an odd number (13) with the addition of Notre Dame.

The talk of division alignment and common opponents have also began. Common cross-divisional opponents that have been discussed are the following:

Clemson vs Oklahoma
Florida State vs Texas
West Virginia vs TCU

The Big XII feels that those would be major, nationally relevant games that would bring both the conference and schools national exposure year after year - to the same level as the SEC currently gets.

The Big XII has meetings upcoming. Look for rumors to start heating up immediately following those meetings; and continue to stay hot and heavy. Announcements could come during the beginning of football season (Sept-Oct).

This is a very fluid situation with plenty of moving parts - so things can change any day. But as of today, it is looking very very likely that this will happen. An in terms of the growth and success of both FSU and Clemson football, this would be a GREAT thing.

Stay tuned......
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I have no insight into the veracity of the statements. But there is more chatter out there.

Acc teams not being any good would be the reason they wouldnt have qualified for a playoff system. I dont think it has anything to do with the actual conference. If FSU, Clemson, VT or any team really, win there going to be highly ranked. That just hasnt been the case as of late.

I'm kinda mixed on the situation.

I think it would benefit FSU financially with TV contracts to join the Big XII. But, I don't like the travel situations with the closest opponent being Clemson, then...?? Ticket sales would be great for FSU-UT every other year in Tally, but what would the conference alignment look like?

North-South as it is now? East-West, maybe? Logistically I'm not sure how it would work. It looks great financially though.

I can see this happening if Miami was added and GT at least considered. Then we would take all of our local rivals with us and leave nobody behind. The B-12 would add the rich Miami market for both recruiting and viewers, the rest of Florida, Atlanta/Georgia and South Carolina.

Take the Big 12 offer (if extended) and run with it - if the SEC really wanted FSU / Clemson, it would have approached FSU by now... The $$$$ (dearth of revenue)is what worries me if FSU Admin sits and waits around...

and $2 million is the estimate for increased travel.

Swofford screwed the ACC with the last deal in which he cared about keeping Raycom (where his son works) alive over keeping up with the other top leagues.

I still think this is very doubtful but will go along for discussion sake.

The Big 12 needs to get back to 12 teams to hold a championship which generates huge profits and there is no one of real worth left outside of Boise St (travel nightmare and small market), BYU (scheduling nightmare) Notre Dame (not interested in Big 12), UConn (begging to join ACC), Rutgers (weak teams but brings New York market), and Louisville (would jump at 1st offer to leave Big East).

PAC 12, B1G and SEC members are rolling in cash from new TV revenue and have no incentive to leave which means the ACC is the only conference not keeping up with the Joneses moneywise.

FSU and Clemson are obvious choices for a 2 team expansion with Ga Tech next on the list. Miami may want to stick with the ACC to appeal to it's NYC alumni so the next would be Va Tech that the SEC may go hard after as well. NC State is the only North Carolina school I could see leaving the ACC and the SEC will target them as well.

So this would be my prediction if (a big if) the ACC gets raided.

Big 12 grabs 4 in FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech and Louiville
SEC grabs 2 from Va Tech, Maryland and NC State
ACC grabs UConn and Rutgers

NGTH

And I wouldn't want to go to a conference with unequal revenue sharing.

I wouldn't mind if we were in the top level of the inequality.

Of course the ACC wouldn't have a qualifier but one time in the last 8 years. The ACC has been terrible, and has not had a power house team in the equation in a long time.

Put it like this. If FSU loses 1 game, the press, with our talent level, will absolutely have us as a top 4 football team. We may have the lowest RPI, but in a given year, there aren't typically more than 4 teams with 1 loss or less. A 1 loss FSU always beats out a 1 loss Boise State or TCU.

End of the day, FSU still has an easy path to MNCs.

In fact, in this years system, I'd argue that USC and FSU have easier roads to the National Championship game than an SEC school. Because the odds of an SEC team going undefeated this year are low. The odds that USC and FSU do, are likely higher. And therefore, if either FSU or USC is undefeated, both would go over a 1 loss SEC team. If both are undefeated, the SEC stays home this year.

Be glad FSU gets all that hype with recruiting rankings and media. Because the media would absolutely vote us in over a 1 loss SEC school.

Would rather go to the Big 12 than stay in the ACC. This conference sucks.